”Do we live in a special time in which the laws of physics and nature are suspended? No, we do not. Can we expect relationships between the Sun’s activity and climate, that we can see in data going back several hundred years, to continue for at least another 20 years? With absolute certainty.”
Här kommer en mycket intressant analys (Solar Cycle 24: Implications for the United States) av David Archibald framförd under THE 2008 International Conference on Climate Change I New York 2-4 mars. Där Archibald betonar solens stora inverkan på klimatet. Analysen finns här:
Se även några av mina tidigare inlägg om temperaturdata och CO2:
När CO2 var som störst var temperaturen som lägst!, Basic Greenhouse Equations ”Totally Wrong” – ytterligare ett anförande från konferensen i New York, $ 2,9 Biljoner i sänkt BNP för en sänkning av CO2 på 25 ppm!, The Price Tag – Kostnaderna för Global Warming för VANLIGT FOLK!, EU:s CO2 policy – The hot air of hypocrisy!, Kallaste januari sedan år 2000 – Hela Global Warming utraderad!, Svenska folket – Ni har blivit grundlurade! 500 miljoner år av CO2 data, Temperaturen för 130 000 år sedan, Climate Change – is CO2 The Cause?, 422 700 år av temperaturdata från Antarktis
Några fler citat:
”In this presentation, I will demonstrate that the Sun drives climate, and use that demonstrated relationship to predict the Earth’s climate to 2030. It is a prediction that differs from most in the public domain. It is a prediction of imminent cooling.
Then we will examine the role of the Sun in changing climate, and following that the contribution of anthropogenic warming from carbon dioxide. I will show that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is not even a little bit bad. It is wholly beneficial. The more carbon dioxide we can put into the atmosphere, the better the planet will be – for humans, and all other living things.
The satellite record is the highest quality temperature data series in the climate record. We have 29 years of satellite temperature data. It shows that the temperature of the Southern Hemisphere has been flat, with a slight increase in the Northern Hemisphere. Note the El Nino peak in 1998. Globally, we have had 10 years of temperature decline since that peak in 1998, with a rate of decline of 0.06 degrees per annum. I am expecting the rate of decline to accelerate to 0.2 degrees per annum from the end of this decade.
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Can global warming from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide save us from a collapse in mid-latitude agricultural production? Not at all.
Anthropogenic warming is real, it is also minuscule. Using the MODTRAN facility maintained by the University of Chicago, the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide content and increase in average global atmospheric temperature is shown in this graph.
The effect of carbon dioxide on temperature is logarithmic and thus climate sensitivity decreases with increasing concentration. The first 20 ppm of carbon dioxide has a greater temperature effect than the next 400 ppm. The rate of annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the last 30 years has averaged 1.7 ppm. From the current level of 380 ppm, it is projected to rise to 420 ppm by 2030.
The projected 40 ppm increase reduces emission from the stratosphere to space from 279.6 watts/m2 to 279.2 watts/m2. Using the temperature response demonstrated by Idso (1998) of 0.1°C per watt/m2, this difference of 0.4 watts/m2 equates to an increase in atmospheric temperature of 0.04°C.
Increasing the carbon dioxide content by a further 200 ppm to 620 ppm, projected by 2150, results in a further 0.16°C increase in atmospheric temperature.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased the temperature of the atmosphere by 0.1°.
Carbon dioxide is not even a little bit bad. It is wholly beneficial.
This graph from a recent Idso paper shows plant growth response to atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment. The 100 ppm carbon dioxide increase since the beginning of industrialisation has been responsible for an average increase in plant growth rate of 15% odd.
The 50% increase in plant growth rate due to a 300 ppm increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide can be expected about the middle of the next century. What a wonderful time that will be.
In a world of higher atmospheric carbon dioxide, crops will use less water per unit of carbon dioxide uptake, and thus the productivity of semi-arid lands will increase the most.
It’s not all good news. We will need this increase in agricultural productivity to offset the colder weather coming.
It also follows that if the developed countries of the world wanted to be caring and sharing towards the third world, the best thing that could be done for the third world is to increase atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Who would want to deny the third world such a wonderful benefit?”
Etiketter: Average Growth enhancement, average increase in plant growth, beneficial, benefits of CO2, climate sensitivity, CO2, logarithmic, productivity of semi-arid lands will increase the most, Temperaturdata, The Solar driver