Cold in the tropical troposphere but it should be warming if Global Warming “theories” are correct!

Här kommer en mycket intressant analys över att ”the tropical troposphere” har blivit kallare. Mars 2008 vare en av de fyra kallaste månaderna på 30 år.

Nå vad har nu detta för betydelse undrar ni säkert. Mycket enkelt: temperaturen i ”the tropical troposphere” är ett fingeravtryck på om teorin om att CO2 driver temperaturen stämmer eller inte.

Om Global Warming ”teorierna” stämmer så skulle temperaturen kontinuerligt stiga vilket de alltså inte gör utan tvärtom sjunker.

Global Warming anyone?

Se även mina inlägg: Average Day By Day Variations Of The Global And Hemispheric Average Lower Tropospheric TemperaturesOur Climate Numbers Are a Big Old MessRewriting Temperature History – Time and Time Again!Has the IPCC inflated the feedback factor?New England winters have cooled in past decadeManipulation av temperatur grafer men bara när de pekar nedåt!The Sloppy Science of Global Warming!Basic Greenhouse Equations ”Totally Wrong” – ytterligare ett anförande från konferensen i New York

Artikeln finns här

http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=3048

Tropical Troposphere

By Steve McIntyre 

Last year, Ross McKitrick proposed the ironic idea of a ”T3 Tax” in which carbon tax levels were related to observed temperature increases in the tropical troposphere. Temperature increases in the tropical troposphere are, as I understand it, a distinctive ”fingerprint” for carbon dioxide forcing. Apparent discrepancies between a lack of warming in satellite data and surface warming have been a battleground issue for many years. In one of the most recent surveys of the matter in 2006, the U.S. CCSP proclaimed that the issue had been put to rest:

”Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human induced global warming. Specifically, surface data showed substantial global-average warming, while early versions of satellite and radiosonde data showed little or no warming above the surface. This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies.”

In this respect, the March 2008 satellite data for the tropics is pretty interesting. The graph below shows UAH (black) and RSS (red) for the tropics (both divided by 1.2 to synchronize to the surface variations – an adjustment factor that John Christy said to use in an email). I also collated the most recent CRU gridded data and calculated a tropical average for 20S to 20N, shown in green. All series have been centered on a common interval.

 

Figure 1. Tropic (20S-20N) temperatures in deg C. All data shown to March 2008.

There have only been a few months in the past 30 years which have been as cold in the tropical troposphere as March 2008 four months in the 1988-1989 La Nina. At present, there is no statistically significant trend for the MSU version. The data set has very high autocorrelation (but I note that autocorrelation doesn’t represent the spikes very well.)

Obviously each fluctuation is unique – I presume that we’ll see some sort of behavior in the next 18 months like after the 1988-1989 Nina – so that one can reasonably project that the long-term ”trend” as at the end of 2009 will be a titch lower than the trend as calculated today.

While RSS and UAH move together, there is a slight drift upwards in RSS relative to UAH and there’s still a slight trend in the RSS numbers. There’s a third data set (Vinnikov – Maryland) which is not kept up to date, which has trends higher than either. Even CRU is now reporting tropical temperatures at surface that are below average during this period.

I draw no conclusions from this other than some claims about the statistical significance of trends need to be examined. The autocorrelation of the data set is very high; although I’m not in a position to pronounce on the matter, the concerns expressed by Cohn and Lins about long-term persistence seem highly pertinent to the sort of patterns that one sees here. Some readers may note a graphic in summer 2005 .

 Här en annan intresant graf över samma fenomen:

The temperature of the tropical upper troposphere continues to show anomalously cool readings (see this Hovmoeller plot):

 

 

Läs även andra bloggares åsikter om <a href=”http://bloggar.se/om/milj%F6 rel=”tag”>miljö</a>

Etiketter: , ,

3 svar to “Cold in the tropical troposphere but it should be warming if Global Warming “theories” are correct!”

  1. GLOBAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 2500 B.C. TO 2008 A.D. « UD/RK Samhälls Debatt Says:

    […] of the reliability of climate predictions based on comparisons with historical time series,  Cold in the tropical troposphere but it should be warming if Global Warming “theories” a…,  How will the political class manage the necessary climb-down?,  Global warming is probably the […]

  2. The 800 year lag of carbon compared to temperature « UD/RK Samhälls Debatt Says:

    […] of the reliability of climate predictions based on comparisons with historical time series,  Cold in the tropical troposphere but it should be warming if Global Warming “theories” a…,  Average Day By Day Variations Of The Global And Hemispheric Average Lower […]

  3. The world has never seen such freezing heat OR the Blunder with NASA: s GISS Temperature data « UD/RK Samhälls Debatt Says:

    […] of the reliability of climate predictions based on comparisons with historical time series,  Cold in the tropical troposphere but it should be warming if Global Warming ”theories” a…,  Average Day By Day Variations Of The Global And Hemispheric Average Lower […]

Kommentera

Fyll i dina uppgifter nedan eller klicka på en ikon för att logga in:

WordPress.com Logo

Du kommenterar med ditt WordPress.com-konto. Logga ut /  Ändra )

Google-foto

Du kommenterar med ditt Google-konto. Logga ut /  Ändra )

Twitter-bild

Du kommenterar med ditt Twitter-konto. Logga ut /  Ändra )

Facebook-foto

Du kommenterar med ditt Facebook-konto. Logga ut /  Ändra )

Ansluter till %s


%d bloggare gillar detta: