Assessment of the reliability of climate predictions based on comparisons with historical time series

Här kommer en mycket intressant undersökning gjord av de klimatmodeller som IPCC använder. Och som Global Warming Hysterikerna avgudar och dyrkar och på vars altare man är beredd att offra vårt välstånd och ekonomiska tillväxt de närmaste 100 åren eller så.

Den framfördes vid The European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008 i Wien den 13 till18 April i år vid ”Session IS23: Climatic and hydrological perspectives on long‐term changes”

Undersökningen är gjord av D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, S. M. Papalexiou Department of Water Resources, Faculty of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechneiou 5

Vad man har gjort är at jämfört kilmatmodellernas förutsägelser med verkliga data från minst 100 år från olika platser på jorden.

Och resultatet? Man sågar fullständigt dessa klimatmodeller längs fotknölarna:

”• The huge negative values of coefficients of efficiency at those scales show that model predictions are much poorer that an elementary prediction based on the time average.

This makes future climate projections not credible.”

Se även mina inlägg: Four Global Warming Skeptics Speak Out:Cold in the tropical troposphere but it should be warming if Global Warming ”theories” are correct!Scientists Reveal Presence Of Ocean Current ‘Stripes’Global warming is probably the biggest scientific boondoggle since the days of Galileo”Carbon dioxide gets all the headlines, but frankly, I think it is overemphasized.”The Flawed science behind the Kyoto protocol!Basic Greenhouse Equations ”Totally Wrong” – ytterligare ett anförande från konferensen i New YorkThe Great Global Warming HoaxMera om Klimat modellernas falsarium, Klimatmodellernas falsarium,  Klimatmodellernas skojeri – Fel på 100 – 300%!,

Se även mina inlägg om temperatur data bl.a.:
Rewriting Temperature History – Time and Time Again!New England winters have cooled in past decade, Manipulation av temperatur grafer men bara när de pekar nedåt!När CO2 var som störst var temperaturen som lägst!20 000 år av temperaturdata från PeruTemperaturen för 130 000 år sedan422 700 år av temperaturdata från Antarktis

 Abstract:

As falsifiability is an essential element of science (Karl Popper), many have disputed the scientific basis of climatic predictions on the grounds that they are not falsifiable or verifiable at present. This critique arises from the argument that we need to wait several decades before we may know how reliable the predictions will be. However, elements of falsifiability already exist, given that many of the climatic model outputs contain time series for past periods. In particular, the models of the IPCC Third Assessment Report have projected future climate starting from 1990; thus, there is an 18-year period for which comparison of model outputs and reality is possible.

In practice, the climatic model outputs are downscaled to finer spatial scales, and conclusions are drawn for the evolution of regional climates and hydrological regimes; thus, it is essential to make such comparisons on regional scales and point basis rather than on global or hemispheric scales. In this study, we have retrieved temperature and precipitation records, at least 100-year long, from a number of stations worldwide. We have also retrieved a number of climatic model outputs, extracted the time series for the grid points closest to each examined station, and produced a time series for the station location based on best linear estimation. Finally, to assess the reliability of model predictions, we have compared the historical with the model time series using several statistical indicators including long-term variability, from monthly to over year (climatic) time scales. Based on these analyses, we discuss the usefulness of climatic model future projections (with emphasis on precipitation) from a hydrological perspective, in relationship to a long-term uncertainty framework.

 Klicka på bilderna i det här inlägget så blir de större

 Conclusions:

– All examined long records demonstrate large over year variability (long term fluctuations) with no systematic signatures across the different locations/climates.

– GCMs generally reproduce the broad climatic behaviours at different geographical locations and the sequence of wet/dry or warm/cold periods on a mean monthly scale.

– However, model outputs at annual and climatic (30 year) scales are irrelevant with reality; also, they do not reproduce the natural over year fluctuation and, generally, underestimate the variance and the Hurst coefficient of the observed series; none of the models proves to be systematically better than the others.

– The huge negative values of coefficients of efficiency at those scales show that model predictions are much poorer that an elementary prediction based on the time average.

– This makes future climate projections not credible.

– The GCM outputs of AR4, as compared to those of TAR, are a regression in terms of the elements of falsifiability they provide, because most of the AR4 scenarios refer only to the future, whereas TAR scenarios also included historical periods.

 Abstrakt finns här:

http://www.itia.ntua.gr/getfile/850/1/documents/2008EGUClimaticPred.pdf

Undersökningen finns här:

http://www.itia.ntua.gr/getfile/850/2/documents/2008EGU_ClimatePredictionPr.pdf

  Läs även andra bloggares åsikter om <a href=”http://bloggar.se/om/milj%F6 rel=”tag”>miljö</a>

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11 svar to “Assessment of the reliability of climate predictions based on comparisons with historical time series”

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