The Spatial Pattern and Mechanisms of Heat-Content Change in the North Atlantic

Här kommer ytterligare en intressant studie ” The Spatial Pattern and Mechanisms of Heat-Content Change in the North Atlantic” av M. Susan Lozier,1* Susan Leadbetter,2 Richard G. Williams,2* Vassil Roussenov,2 Mark S. C. Reed,1 Nathan J. Moore1 som publicerades i Science Express i januari i år.

Det som är det intressanta är deras konstaterande:

”However, although most climate models show a slight strengthening of the NAO index with anthropogenic forcing, the climate models also underestimate the strength of the recent decadal trend in the NAO, raising doubts as to the viability of the connection between the NAO and anthropogenic forcing in climate models”

Dvs. ytterligare ett bevis på vilken lösan sand dessa klimatmodeller är byggda. I det här fallet så klarar de inte av att simulera ”the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)” och dess verkningar på klimat (och vädret). Ej heller kan de simulera det motsvarende fenomenet i Stilla Havet ”The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)”.

För att inte tala om El Niño and La Niña som dessa modeller HELLER INTE KLARAR AV.

Både NAO och PDO har en mycket stor påverkan på klimatet i hela jorden. Då bägge  kan vara mycket långvariga till skillnad mot El Niño and La Niña som är mera ”kortvariga ” (6-18 månader).

Man mäter fasen och amplituden av NAO och PDO genom ett index Man pratar dessutom om ett positivt och negativt NAO index vilket har helt olika effekter på vädret.

ALLA dessa viktiga och stora klimatpåverkande fenomen klara dessa avgudade modeller INTE AV att förutse. OCH DET ÄR SAMMA MODELLER SOM MAN VILL FÅ OSS ATT TRO KAN FÖRUTSÄGA TEMPERATUREN OM 100 år PÅ EN TIONDELSGRAD NÄR!

Det är alltså resultatet av dess av modeller som IPCC, Al Gore et consortes avgudar och som hela Global Warming Hysterin bygger på.  Och där man vill ”offra” större delen av värt ekonomiska välståd på dess altare för att blidka CO2 guden.

Abstract finns här:

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/319/5864/800

The Spatial Pattern and Mechanisms of Heat-Content Change in the North Atlantic

M. Susan Lozier,1* Susan Leadbetter,2 Richard G. Williams,2* Vassil Roussenov,2 Mark S. C. Reed,1 Nathan J. Moore1 .

The total heat gained by the North Atlantic Ocean over the past 50 years is equivalent to a basinwide increase in the flux of heat across the ocean surface of 0.4 ± 0.05 watts per square meter. We show, however, that this basin has not warmed uniformly: Although the tropics and subtropics have warmed, the subpolar ocean has cooled. These regional differences require local surface heat flux changes (±4 watts per square meter) much larger than the basinwide average. Model investigations show that these regional differences can be explained by large-scale, decadal variability in wind and buoyancy forcing as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Whether the overall heat gain is due to anthropogenic warming is difficult to confirm because strong natural variability in this ocean basin is potentially masking such input at the present time.

1 Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
2 Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Liverpool University, Liverpool L69 3GP, UK.

Present address: Department of Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA.

Conclusion

”Lastly, the positive trend in the winter NAO index in the 1990s has been attributed to anthropogenic forcing (Hurrell 1995), implying that the NAO could be the route by which anthropogenic warming is imprinted on the ocean. However, although most climate models show a slight strengthening of the NAO index with anthropogenic forcing, the climate models also underestimate the strength of the recent decadal trend in the NAO, raising doubts as to the viability of the connection between the NAO and anthropogenic forcing in climate models (Gillett et al., 2003; Stephenson et al. 2006). Hence, although the change in ocean heat content over the North Atlantic can be connected to the decadal trend in the NAO, it is premature to conclusively attribute these regional patterns of heat gain to greenhouse warming. Continued long-term monitoring of North Atlantic temperatures is needed to answer the question of whether the basin-average warming is reflecting anthropogenic forcing and/or natural variability.

Se även mina inlägg:

Honest Statement Of Current Capability In Climate ForecastsTropical Water Vapor and Cloud Feedbacks in Climate ModelsBasic Greenhouse Equations ”Totally Wrong” – ytterligare ett anförande från konferensen i New YorkHey, Nobel Prize Winners, Answer Me This, The Sloppy Science of Global Warming!ROBUSTNESS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONSHas the IPCC inflated the feedback factor?Climate change confirmed but global warming is cancelledWhy multiple climate model agreement is not that exciting!Open letter to IPCC to renounce its current policy!Average Day By Day Variations Of The Global And Hemispheric Average Lower Tropospheric TemperaturesScientists Reveal Presence Of Ocean Current ‘Stripes’Cold in the tropical troposphere but it should be warming if Global Warming ”theories” are correct!Assessment of the reliability of climate predictions based on comparisons with historical time seriesMera om Klimat modellernas falsariumKlimatmodellernas falsarium,  Klimatmodellernas skojeri – Fel på 100 – 300%!

  

                          Positivt NAO Index

                             Negativt NAO Index

                                      NAO Index

Här är en mycket intressant graf över Met Offices försök att förutsäga NAO  och som vi ser så är felmarginalen emellanåt ganska stor med en standard error på ±1.0

                              PDO Index

                 Varm Fas                                      Kall Fas

 

                                   El Nino och La Nina

 

Grafer finns här:

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao_ts.shtml

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino_normal.html

 

Statistical prediction of the winter NAO (Met Office, UK):

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/regional/nao/index.html

 

Artikeln finns här:

http://climatesci.org/2008/05/19/the-spatial-pattern-and-mechanisms-of-heat-content-change-in-the-north-atlantic-by-lozier-et-al/

 

Läs även andra bloggares åsikter om <a href=”http://bloggar.se/om/milj%F6 rel=”tag”>miljö</a>

 

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6 svar to “The Spatial Pattern and Mechanisms of Heat-Content Change in the North Atlantic”

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