But the forecasts, especially for regional climate change, are immensely uncertain!

Så här utttalar sig Tim Palmer (head of the Predictability and Seasonal Forecast Division of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK). Som drabbats av eftertankens kranka blekhet och insett att tåget har vänt – Global Warming Hysterikerna står ertappade med byxorna nere. Alla deras tjusiga modeller och förutsägelser faller platt till marken inför verkligheten.

Så här säger han i artikeln i New Science (01 May 2008, Magazine issue 2654 )

”Poor forecasting undermines climate debate”

”POLITICIANS seem to think that the science is a done deal,” says Tim Palmer. ”I don’t want to undermine the IPCC, but the forecasts, especially for regional climate change, are immensely uncertain.”

Palmer is a leading climate modeller at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK, and he does not doubt that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has done a good job alerting the world to the problem of global climate change. But he and his fellow climate scientists are acutely aware that the IPCC’s predictions of how the global change will affect local climates are little more than guesswork. They fear that if the IPCC’s predictions turn out to be wrong, it will provoke a crisis in confidence that undermines the whole climate change debate.

On top of this, some climate scientists believe that even the IPCC’s global forecasts leave much to be desired.

Så här lät det för 2 år sedan:

”But crucially, uncertainty is not a reason for inaction. If we pool together the forecasts from the best available climate models of today, these similarly indicate that there is a very high probability of a serious problem – a problem which has already begun to be manifest, and is very likely to become more and more significant as we progress through this century.”

Artikeln finns här:

http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19826543.700?DCMP=NLC-nletter&nsref=mg19826543.700

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3 svar to “But the forecasts, especially for regional climate change, are immensely uncertain!”

  1. weather » Blog Archive » But the forecasts, especially for regional climate change, are … Says:

    […] darnelln wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptSå här utttalar sig Tim Palmer (head of the Predictability and Seasonal Forecast Division of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK). Som drabbats av eftertankens kranka blekhet och insett att tåget har … […]

  2. CO2 can not be blamed for Global Warming! « UD/RK Samhälls Debatt Says:

    […] it actually means,  IPCC models are incoherent and invalid from a scientific point of view!,  But the forecasts, especially for regional climate change, are immensely uncertain!,  The Greenhouse Conspiracy,  Global Warming as […]

  3. The IPCC must be called to account and cease its deceptive practices! « UD/RK Samhälls Debatt Says:

    […] it actually means,  IPCC models are incoherent and invalid from a scientific point of view!,  But the forecasts, especially for regional climate change, are immensely uncertain!,  The Greenhouse Conspiracy,  Global Warming as Mass Neurosis,  CO2 can not be blamed for […]

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