Global Warming Skeptics: Why Do They Exist?

Här kommer tre utmärkta artiklar. En av James Nash (a climate scientist with Greatest Planet) om bl.a. hockey-stick skandalen.

Och två bra artiklar om ”Hard Sience” och ”Climate: The First Post-Modernist Science?”av Warren Meyer.

Visst är det skönt med all denna ”vetenskap” som ligger bakom Global Warming Hysterin!

Climate: The First Post-Modernist Science?:

Reading this, I start to come to the conclusion that climate scientists are attempting to make Climate the first post-modernist physical science.  It certainly would explain why climate is so far short of being a ”big-boy science” like physics, where replicating results is more important than casual review of publications by a cherry-picked group of peers.

Additionally, it goes a long way to explaining why Steve McIntyre gets this response when he requests the data he needs to try to replicate certain climate studies (and here):

”    We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it. There is IPR to consider.”

Fake but Accurate — Now Coming to the Hard Sciences:

A huge number of physicists and geologists who actually take the time to look into the details of climate science come away being shocked at the scholarship.  Take a world class physicist, drop him into a discussion of the details of the Mann hockey stick analysis, and in an hour you will have a skeptic.

Crazy?  Remember the words of from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NOAA) climate researcher and global warming action promoter, Steven Schneider:

”We have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we have. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.”

Global Warming Skeptics: Why Do They Exist?

By : James Nash    

Submitted 2008-10-07 22:06:21 

In the global warming debate, there are essentially two broad camps. One believes that the science is settled, that global warming is serious and man-made, and that urgent action must be taken to mitigate or prevent a future calamity. The other believes that the science is far from settled, that precious little is known about global warming or its likely effects, and that prudence dictates more research and caution before intervening massively in the economy.

The ”science is settled” camp, much the larger of the two, includes many eminent scientists with impressive credentials. But just who are the global warming skeptics who question the studies from the great majority of climate scientists and what are their motives?

Many in the ”science is settled” camp claim that the skeptics are untrustworthy — that they are either cranks or otherwise at the periphery of their profession, or that they are in the pockets of Exxon or other corporate interests. The skeptics are increasingly being called Deniers, a term used by analogy to the Holocaust, to convey the catastrophe that could befall mankind if action is not taken. Increasingly, too, the press is taking up the Denier theme, convincing the public that the global-warming debate is over.

Many critics became involved in the global-warming debate after the publication of research by Michael Mann. You may not have heard of Mann or read Mann’s study but you have often heard its famous conclusion: that the temperature increases that we have been experiencing are ”likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years” and that the ”1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year” of the millennium. You may have also heard of Mann’s hockey-stick shaped graph, which showed relatively stable temperatures over most of the last millennium (the hockey stick’s long handle), followed by a sharp increase (the hockey stick’s blade) this century.

Mann’s findings were arguably the single most influential study in swaying the public debate, and in 2001 they became the official view of the International Panel for Climate Change, the UN body that is organizing the worldwide effort to combat global warming. But Mann’s work also had its critics, who published peer-reviewed critiques of their own.

Many critics found that Mann made a basic error that may be easily overlooked by someone not trained in statistical methodology, and that here was no evidence that Dr. Mann or any of the other authors in paleoclimate studies have had significant interactions with mainstream statisticians. Instead, Mann and his small group of climate scientists were working on their own, largely in isolation, and without the academic scrutiny needed to ferret out false assumptions.

Worse, the problem also applied more generally, to the broader climate-change and meteorological community, which also relied on statistical techniques in their studies. I]f statistical methods are being used, the critics argue, then statisticians ought to be funded partners engaged in the research to insure as best we possibly can that the best quality science is being done, adding that there are a host of fundamental statistical questions that beg answers in understanding climate dynamics.

In other words, the critics believe that much of the climate science that has been done should be taken with a grain of salt – although the studies may have been peer reviewed, the reviewers were often unqualified in statistics. Past studies, they believe, should be reassessed by competent statisticians and in future, the climate science world should do better at incorporating statistical know-how.

One place to start is with the American Meteorological Society, which has a committee on probability and statistics. As an example of the statistical barrenness of the climate-change world, the critics cite the American Meteorological Association’s 2006 Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, where only eight presenters out of 62 were members of the American Statistical Association.

While the critic’s advice – to use trained statisticians in studies reliant on statistics – may seem too obvious to need stating, the ”science is settled” camp resists it. Mann’s hockey-stick graph may be wrong, many experts now acknowledge, but they assert that he nevertheless came to the right conclusion.

To which the critics, and doubtless others who want more rigourous science, shake their heads in disbelief. They are baffled by the claim that the incorrect method doesn’t matter because the answer is correct anyway. With bad science, only true believers can assert that they nevertheless obtained the right answer.

Author Resource:- James Nash is a climate scientist with Greatest Planet ( Greatest Planet is a non-profit environmental organization specialising in carbon offset investments.

James Nash is solely responsible for the contents of this article.

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Ett svar to “Global Warming Skeptics: Why Do They Exist?”

  1. Hårresande Says:

    Det är hårresande läsning. Tack SofiaAlbertina.

    Länka din blogg till TV 8:as Aduktusson som härom dagen lät två kritiker komma till tals om global warming-hysterin som de inte trodde på. Kanske kan vi få sans i debatten i Sverige om man släpper fram litet av detta som säga i artikeln ovan. Men massmedia håller fortfarande på the “science is settled” camp. Det är otroligt naivt och kortsiktigt. Sanningen kommer fram en dag i öppet ljus för vanligt folk och massmedia har då tappat enormt mycket av sin trovärdighet också i den vetenskapliga och politiska bevakningen, för att inte tala om hur man hanterat den fruktansvärda ekonomiska katastrof som drabbar vanligt folk på grund av de s.k. CO2-miljösatsningarna.


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