Here with some more up to date trends and statistics. And Obama and the democrats would be in even more trouble if it weren’t for the fact that the republican party “brand” is in such a terrible shape.
There are a lot of republicans who are disgruntled with the party establishment. And think they are just the “light” version of Big Government and More Spending.
The only differences compared with the democrats are in scale and scope. And that’s also why the Tea Party movement is growing.
First Obamas approval index month by month:
The president’s Approval Index ratings fell three points in December following two-point declines in both October and November.
Looking back, the president’s honeymoon ended quickly before his ratings stabilized from March through May. They tumbled in June and July as the health care debate began before stabilizing again over the summer. Public attitudes towards the health care legislation have hardened in recent months, with most voters opposed to the work being done in Congress.
As Congress has drawn closer to achieving the president’s goals on health care, unemployment also has been rising, and Obama’s ratings have reflected the turmoil.
The number who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s performance inched up a point to 41% in December. The number who Strongly Approved fell two more points to 26%. That leads to a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15, a new low for Obama.
Also in December, the president’s total approval dropped two points to 46%. His total disapproval gained a point to 53%. It’s worth noting that the Approval Index ratings have generally proven to be a good leading indicator of the president’s overall approval ratings.
And his Approval index:
And new lows for democrats in partisan trends:
Number of Democrats Falls to New Low, Down Six Points Since Election 2008
Sunday, January 03, 2010
In December, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports.
Currently, 35.5% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 36.0 a month ago and from 37.8% in October. Prior to December, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005.
The number of Republicans inched up by a point in December to 34.0%. That’s the highest total for Republicans since December 2007, just before the 2008 presidential campaign season began.
However, the number of Republicans in the country is essentially no different today than it was in November 2008 when Barack Obama was elected president.
The change since Obama’s election is that the number of Democrats has fallen by six percentage points and the number of voters not affiliated with either major party has grown by six. The number of adults not affiliated with either party is currently at 30.6%, up from 24.7% in November 2008.
Despite the changes, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the nation. But the gap is down to 1.5 percentage points, the smallest since August 2005.
Between November 2004 and 2006, the Democratic advantage in partisan identification grew by 4.5 percentage points. That foreshadowed the Democrats’ big gains in the 2006 midterm elections. The gap grew by another 1.5 percentage points between November 2006 and 2008 heading into the election of President Obama.
The gap between the parties is now very similar to the gap in November 2004, when George W. Bush won reelection. However, at that time, both parties had more support, and fewer were unaffiliated with either party. The number of unaffiliateds typically declines as major elections draw near.
When Obama was inaugurated last January, Democrats had a seven-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Republicans now have a five-point advantage. That change has been brought about partly by the declining number of Democrats and partly by the fact that unaffiliated voters are now more supportive of the GOP.
(The republican now have NINE-Point advantage Januari 3)
Summary of Party Affiliation
December 31, 2009
Dec 34.0% 35.5%
Nov 33.1% 36.0%
Oct 31.9% 37.8%
Sept 32.1% 37.5%
Aug 32.7% 37.3%
July 32.6% 36.8%
June 32.2% 38.9%
May 32.6% 39.4%
Apr 32.6% 38.7%
Mar 33.2% 38.7%
Feb 33.6% 40.8%
Jan 32.6% 40.9%
Dec 32.8% 41.6%
Nov 33.8% 41.4%
Oct 33.3% 40.3%
Sep 33.4% 39.0%
Aug 33.2% 38.9%
Jul 31.6% 39.2%
Jun 31.5% 41.0%
May 31.6% 41.7%
Apr 31.4% 41.4%
Mar 32.1% 41.1%
Feb 31.8% 41.5%
Jan 33.1% 38.7%
And here is a rather frank analysis from a New York Times liberal, even if he doesn’t like it:
The Tea Party Teens
By DAVID BROOKS
“The United States opens this decade in a sour mood. First, Americans are anxious about the future. Sixty-one percent of Americans believe the country is in decline, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey. Only 27 percent feel confident that their children’s generation will be better off than they are.
Second, Americans have lost faith in their institutions. During the great moments of social reform, at least 60 percent of Americans trusted government to do the right thing most of the time. Now, only a quarter have that kind of trust.
The country is evenly divided about President Obama, but state governments are in disrepute and confidence in Congress is at withering lows. As Frank Newport of the Gallup organization noted in his year-end wrap-up, “Americans have less faith in their elected representatives than ever before.”
(The latest Rasmussen poll showed this: Congressional Job Rating
12% Excellent/Good, 85% Fair/Poor)
“Third, the new administration has not galvanized a popular majority. In almost every sphere of public opinion, Americans are moving away from the administration, not toward it. The Ipsos/McClatchy organizations have been asking voters which party can do the best job of handling a range of 13 different issues. During the first year of the Obama administration, the Republicans gained ground on all 13.
“The public is not only shifting from left to right. Every single idea associated with the educated class has grown more unpopular over the past year.”
“A year ago, the Obama supporters were the passionate ones. Now the tea party brigades have all the intensity.”
The tea party movement is a large, fractious confederation of Americans who are defined by what they are against. They are against the concentrated power of the educated class. They believe big government, big business, big media and the affluent professionals are merging to form self-serving oligarchy — with bloated government, unsustainable deficits, high taxes and intrusive regulation.
The tea party movement is mostly famous for its flamboyant fringe. But it is now more popular than either major party. According to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 41 percent of Americans have a positive view of the tea party movement. Only 35 percent of Americans have a positive view of the Democrats and only 28 percent have a positive view of the Republican Party.
The movement is especially popular among independents. The Rasmussen organization asked independent voters whom they would support in a generic election between a Democrat, a Republican and a tea party candidate. The tea party candidate won, with 33 percent of independents. Undecided came in second with 30 percent. The Democrats came in third with 25 percent and the Republicans fourth with 12 percent.”
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