Posts Tagged ‘Local and regional processes’

If ALL human activities CEASED in Alaska TODAY the effect on global temperature in 2100 would be 0,001 C

28 januari, 2009

Here comes a very interesting study which puts the whole Global Warming Hysteria in perspective. This study takes the example of Alaska to see what impact it would have on a global scale if Alaska would follow the Global Warming Hysterics and their policies.

A cessation of ALL OF Alaska’s anthropogenic CO2 emissions, that is a TOTAL STOP for ALL HUMAN activities and a deportation of ALL HUMANS from Alaska,  would result in a Global temperature reduction by the year 2100 of one thousandths of a degree Celsius (0,001).

A climatically-irrelevant and undetectable global temperature reduction.

And it will result in a global sea-level rise savings by the year 2100 of an estimated 0.02 cm, or less than one hundredths of an inch.

Again, this value is climatically irrelevant and virtually zero.

And for this the politicians want to sacrifice our living standard, progress and wellbeing!

”Even if the entire Western world were to close down its economies completely and revert to the Stone Age, without even the ability to light fires, the growth in emissions from China and India would replace our entire emissions in little more than a decade.

Se also my postThe Spatial Pattern and Mechanisms of Heat-Content Change in the North Atlantic


Figure 5. Alaskan statewide average temperature, 1949-2007 (source: Alaska Climate Research Center).  Note the step-change in Alaska temperatures in late 1970s coincides with the step-change from the cooling to the warming phase of the PDO (see figure 3).


Figure 6. Alaskan statewide average temperature, 1976-2007 (source: Alaska Climate Research Center).


Figure 11. Annually-averaged anthropogenic emissions (2000-2003) of CO2 and annually-averaged CO2 emissions (2002-2006) from fires for states where average fire emissions greater than 5% of the states’ anthropogenic emissions. The error bars associated with the fire emission estimates represent the standard deviation of the monthly emissions for 2002-2006 (from Wiedinmyer and Neff, 2007).

Using the percentages in Table 3, and assuming that temperature change scales in proportion to CO2 emissions, we calculate the global temperature savings that will result from the complete cessation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in Alaska:


Accordingly, a cessation of all of Alaska‘s CO2 emissions would result in a climatically-irrelevant and undetectable global temperature reduction by the year 2100 of one thousandths of a degree Celsius – a number is so low that it is effectively equivalent to zero. Results for sea-level rise are also negligible:


A complete cessation of all anthropogenic emissions from Alaska will result in a global sea-level rise savings by the year 2100 of an estimated 0.02 cm, or less than one hundredths of an inch. Again, this value is climatically irrelevant and virtually zero.

Observed Climate Change and the Negligible Global Effect of Greenhouse-gas Emission Limits in the State of Alaska

Summary for Policy Makers

The climate of Alaska has changed considerably over the past 50-plus years. However, human emissions of greenhouse gases are not the primary reason. Instead, the timing of the swings of a periodic, natural cycle-the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-has made a strong imprint on the observed climate of Alaska since the mid-20th century. Despite its established existence and influence, this natural cycle is often overlooked or ignored in zealous attempts to paint the current climate of Alaska as being one primarily molded by the emissions from anthropogenic industrial activities. In truth, the climate of Alaska and the ecosystems influenced by it have been subject to the cycles of the PDO and other natural variations since the end of the last ice age (some 12,000 years ago) and likely for eons prior. It is primarily these natural cycles that are currently shaping Alaska‘s long-term climate and weather fluctuations.

Local and regional processes are the most important determinants of the climate experienced by local and regional ecosystems, including human populations. Global-scale influences are much harder to detect and their influence on regionalscale changes is uncertain. In fact, global climate models which project changes in future climate are unable to reliably model local and regional changes-the most important ones in our daily lives.

Therefore, efforts to control global processes through local changes are largely useless when it comes to the climate. For instance, the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities each year in the state of Alaska amounts to less than 0.2 percent of the global total human greenhouse gas emissions. Industrial growth in China adds an additional Alaska‘s worth of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each and every month (over and above its baseline emissions). This leads to the inescapable conclusion that even a complete cessation of all carbon dioxide emissions originating from Alaska would be subsumed by global greenhouse gas emissions increases in less than three week’s time. What’s more, carbon dioxide emissions reductions in Alaska would produce no detectable or scientifically meaningful impact on local, regional, or global climate. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the economic consequences of greenhouse gas emissions’ legislation-they have been recently estimated to be large, and negative, for the citizens of Alaska.

Long-term Climate History of Alaska

Current conditions in Alaska, largely brought about by the warm phase of the PDO, are conducive to increasing the recession rate of the state’s many glaciers (a recession rate first established at the end of the Little Ice Age in the mid-to-late 1800s), initiating thawing of marginal permafrost and other impacts reviewed above. Still, current conditions are not unusual in the present Holocene climate epoch (the period since the end of the last ice age about 10,000-12,000 years ago). In fact, there have been several extended periods, stretching from centuries to millennia, during the Holocene in which the climate of Alaska was warmer than it is currently.

These warm periods have been described and documented in the scientific literature.

In on such paper titled ”Pronounced climatic variations in Alaska during the last two millennia,” University of Illinois scientist Feng Sheng Hu (2001) examined the make-up of lake sediments located in the northwest foothills of the Alaskan Range to determine how the climate varied during that period. Among other findings, Hu and colleagues concluded that there have been three periods of roughly similar warmth in Alaska during the past 2,000 years-periods from A.D. 0 to 300, 850-1200, and 1800 to present. Thus, the environmental changes that are occurring in the current warm period surely occurred during several other occasions in the past 2,000 years-long before human activities were having an impact on the global climate.

An even farther look back in time was summarized in a landmark study, ”Holocene thermal maximum in the western Arctic,” published in 2004 by 30 eminent scientists whose specialty is past climate (Kaufman et al., 2004). Making use of a variety of proxy indicators, the authors concluded that the climate of Alaska averaged ~3ºF warmer than recent times over an extended period of 2,000 years, from 9,000 to 11,000 years ago. Clearly, the early ancestors of today’s native Americans as well as today’s polar bears, walruses, and other plant and animal species made it through that extended warm period.

All physical evidence provides a clear picture that Alaska’s climate is far from stationary. It warms and cools over time scales of years, decades, centuries, and millennia. That the human influence on the global atmospheric composition has only become possible during the past 50 years or so indicates that natural forces are the primary drivers behind these long-occurring climate fluctuations to which native flora and fauna have adapted and evolved. The climate of today is not unparalleled. It is one that has been experienced in Alaska on numerous occasions over the past 12,000 years.

Impacts of climate-mitigation measures in the state of Alaska

Globally, in 2004, humankind emitted 27,186 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (mmtCO2), of which emissions from Alaska accounted for 47.0 mmtCO2, or a mere 0.17% (EIA, 2007a, b). Alaska’s proportion of manmade CO2 emissions will decrease over the 21st century as the rapid demand for hydrocarbon energy in developing countries such as China, India, Brizil, South Africa, and Indonesia rapidly outpaces the growth of Alaska’s CO2 emissions (EIA, 2007a).

During the past 5 years, global emissions of CO2 from human activity have increased at an average rate of 3.5%/yr (EIA, 2007a), meaning that the annual increase of anthropogenic global CO2 emissions is more than 20 times greater than Alaska’s total emissions. This means that even a complete cessation of all CO2 emissions in Alaska would be completely subsumed by global emissions growth in less than three week’s time! China alone adds about 13 Alaska‘s-worth of new emissions to its emissions’ total each and every year. Clearly, given the magnitude of the global emissions and global emission growth, regulations prescribing even total cessation of Alaska’s CO2 emissions will have absolutely no effect on global climate.

Further, Alaskan forest fires annually emit more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than all human activity combined-a situation that is unique among the 50 states. Thus, any changes in human carbon dioxide emissions would be largely lost in the natural variations in fire activity.

In trying to determine the climatic effects of greenhouse gas emissions limitations, Wigley (1998 ) examined the climate impact of the adherence to the emissions controls agreed under the Kyoto Protocol by participating nations, and found that, if all developed countries meet their commitments in 2010 and maintain them through 2100, with a mid-range sensitivity of surface temperature to changes in CO2, the amount of warming ”saved” by the Kyoto Protocol would be 0.07°C by 2050 and 0.15°C by 2100. The global sea level rise ”saved” would be 2.6 cm, or one inch. Even a complete cessation of CO2 emissions in Alaska is only a tiny fraction of the worldwide reductions assumed in Dr. Wigley’s global analysis, so its impact on future trends in global temperature and sea level will be only a minuscule fraction of the negligible effects calculated by Dr. Wigley.

”Even if the entire Western world were to close down its economies completely and revert to the Stone Age, without even the ability to light fires, the growth in emissions from China and India would replace our entire emissions in little more than a decade. In this context, any cuts in emissions from Alaska would be extravagantly pointless. Alaska’s carbon dioxide emissions, it their sum total, effectively do not impact world climate in any way whatsoever.”

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